#13: The Million Dollar BTC Bet 💰
Newsletter Content:
📰 Main Topic: The $1 Million Bitcoin Bet
📈 Quote + Weekly Price Recap: See Below
🚨 Top Stories: More Banking Developments / Euler Finance Hacked / Microsoft Wallet Integration / Salesforce Major Web3 Push / Fidelity Rolls Out Retail Crypto Offering / Meta’s Twitter Competitor
📖 Thread / Read of the Week: Extensive Vision - Web3 Breakdown
📊 Visual of the Week: Developer Demographics
🔭 This Week: FOMC / ARB Airdrop / Q1 Wrapping Up
The talk of the town this week has been centered around Balaji Srinivasan.
Balaji has placed a total bet of 2$ Million dollars that the price of Bitcoin will surpass $1 Million / coin in the next 90 days.
Read that again.
So who is Balaji Srinivasan?
Co-founded and sold Counsyl, a genetics company with a worldwide presence that sold for $375M.
Served as the CTO of Coinbase.
Was a partner and board member at a16z, which is arguably the most credible VC in the crypto sector.
Through a16z, revamped a company called Earn and sold it Coinbase.
Is an author and a lecturer at Stanford University.
Balaji clearly has a strong grasp of the industry, so what is his argument?
He thinks the current banking crisis will accelerate (BTC has reacted very strongly so far to the fallout and bailout of SVB).
In return, bailouts will continue and grow in size leading to large amounts of new money being printed.
This influx of new dollars being issued will lead the United States into hyperinflation - an existing problem in many less developed countries.
The lack of trust in banks and debasement of the US dollar will lead to parabolic demand for Bitcoin.
Here’s my take:
I stand with the majority (from what I have seen) on this debate in thinking it is extremely unlikely that Bitcoin passes or even comes close to $1M per coin in the next 90 days.
I feel Balaji may be directionally correct and I personally expect BTC to perform well in an environment like this.
For Bitcoin to reach this price, it would require a 3500% move in the next 90 days, giving it a market cap greater than Gold.
If the trust in banks and hyperinflation played out to the most extreme, we would have way bigger issues on our hands - I don’t think even the biggest Bitcoin believers would want this scenario to play out.
While $2 Million is a lot of money, it is not going to break the bank for Balaji, and this comes across to me like a large marketing play. It is also interesting to think about how much BTC Balaji holds, and how much of a move in the price is required for him to “win back” his bet in capital appreciation.
Never a boring week in crypto…
Quote of the Week:
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” - Lao Tzu
Price Performance:
Top Stories:
Banking Developments:
Microsoft Reportedly Testing Edge Browser Web3 Wallet Integration (CoinTelegraph)
If you have ever thought: “I don’t know how to create a wallet”, then look no further, because it seems like Microsoft is embedding one in every Edge user’s browser.
In terms of mass adoption, this is some big news. Users going out of their way and jumping through the hoops that are getting a wallet, buying crypto, and using that crypto to transact, is a massive hurdle that hasn’t been figured out.
Microsoft is making a significant bet here, the bet is that mass adoption will occur through a repeatable, low friction user experience… the only problem is who uses Microsoft Edge?!
Fidelity Crypto Quietly Went Live, Giving Millions of Retail Customers Access to Bitcoin, Ether (The Block)
This is a major headline to me, but went largely unnoticed across the space among the other news breaking out. I am very interested to see how the initial numbers look for this offering.
DeFi Sees Its Biggest Hack in 2023 as Euler Loses $197M (Investing)
Euler is an ETH-based DeFi protocol, a place where users can lend and borrow various crypto assets. Protocols like this require tremendous security testing and maintenance as they are hotbeds for hackers. Hackers look at this like a bank heist in the gold rush, it's the wild west.
There was recently an attack on Euler finance for $197 Million, and they’ve given back $5.4 million so far. Euler currently has a $1 Million reward to anyone who gives them insight into where the funds are.
Salesforce Rolls Out Platform for Big Brands to Create NFT Loyalty Programs (Decrypt)
Salesforce is a global powerhouse who has accumulated 1/3 of the CRM sector’s market share to date.
They launched this offering to allow brands to create superior reward programs that were not possible before the tech behind NFTs emerged, while keeping the user experience seamless and in line with existing Web2 efforts.
Meta is Exploring a Decentralized, Text-Based Social Network That Could Compete with Elon Musk’s Twitter (CNBC)
Meta’s metaverse plans didn’t pan out in 2022, but their new effort is more practical. Meta is looking to create a decentralized and text-based platform that will compete with Twitter, called P92.
It seems like a way to bet on blockchain but do so in a way that can produce more immediate revenue. Most of the specifics about the build are unclear besides Meta attempting to take ownership of the full messaging communication vertical with WhatsApp, Instagram, and now P92.
Thread / Read(s) of the Week:
Visual of the Week:
Coming Up:
Wednesday (3/22): FOMC Meeting + Powell Speaks
Thursday (3/23): Arbitrum Airdrop + Token Launch
ETH Shanghai Upgrade Set for April 12th (Allows staking withdrawals)
Q1 Wraps Up in Two Weeks